What will the President do in a hung House?

If Indian President Kalam were to follow President K R Narayanan's 1998 example, Congress and its allies may get the first chance if they are able to satisfy the President they can win the confidence of the House.

Still, the pundits would want the President to go by the precedent of inviting the leader of the single largest party.

Says K K Venugopal: "The convention is to invite the leader of the party who would be able to provide a stable government. If there is no single party with an absolute majority, he would look for the leader of a pre-poll alliance which has a majority. If no such alliance has a majority, then the convention should be to invite the leader of the pre-poll alliance which has the maximum number of Lok Sabha MPs." Venugopal maintains that since horse-trading would be inevitable in a fractured mandate, inviting the biggest pre-poll alliance group would be consistent with democratic conventions.

Shanti Bhushan, a former Union law minister, says Kalam should invite the leader of the single largest political party which claims to enjoy majority support in the Lok Sabha. After a reasonable time, this leader should seek the confidence of the House, Bhushan said.

Another Constitution and electoral law expert, Rakesh Dwivedi, echoes the viewpoint, saying the first invitation should go to the strongest among the pre-poll alliances. Subhash Kashyap, former secretary general of Lak Sabha, says one more option could be a Constitution Review Commission recommendation that the President should send a message to the House asking it to elect its leader essentially, to seek a vote of confidence sooner rather than later.

Venugopal, however, favours in the first instance the convention of inviting the leader of the single largest party or pre-poll alliance to move a vote of confidence.

But neither Kashyap nor Venugopal favours overlooking a pre-poll alliance for a post-poll alliance. On principle, says Kashyap, only a pre-poll alliance with a common manifesto should have validity. Venugopal agrees. After Thursday, it may all be up to the President.