National Democratic Alliance

With just four weeks to go forthe casting of the first ballot in elections 1999, the scene about political alliances is still not clear. The two major political parties- the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and Centrist Congress Party which has ruled the country after the greater part of its independence in 1947- donot seem confident of getting an absolute majority of 543 Lok Sabha members on their own.

While BJP is contesting the election as the major partner of The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), whose constituents have ruled the country since April 1998, the Congress has decided to go it alone seeking minor adjustments at local levels. Sine the NDA is a major combination, many political analysts feel that if the anti-incumbency factor does not operate, BJP combination may be back to power in Delhi with Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee as its head.

However the major problem is the differences within the BJP-led NDA. The two constituents of NDA, the Samata Party of Defence Minister George Fernandes and Lok Shakti of the Commerce Minister Ram Krishna Hegde combined together and aligned with the faction of the Janata Dal. The Janata Dal wa promoted by former Prime Minister-- VP Singh, and had two immediate predecessors of Prime Minister Vajpayee- IK Gujaral and HD Deva Gowda- among its top leaders. The alliance of these three groups led to a virtual crisis in the NDA and became a real threat to the prospects of the combine.

Similar problems have been witnessed in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, where DMK leader and Chief Minister M Karunanidhi is with Vajpayee this time. What Karunanidhi initially described as a “minor hitch” in seat sharing virtually turned into a full blown crisis for the NDA when it came to handling a mercurial MDMK.

The DMK leader had to concede to the MDMK demand of atleast one of the two seats it had preferred in the same state, namely Tiruchengode. The MDMK on its own part reciprocated by accepting Karunanidhi’s offer of Pollachi (reserved) seat which it had rejected earlier.

However in the murky world of Indian politics, these alliances do not mean much. It is apparent that leaders like Fernandes and Hegde are keeping their options open. If splinter groups comprising what is vaguely called “janata parivar” (family) get a good number of seats, then they may walkout of the alliance with Vajpayee’s BJP and seek new partners. Their wish is to give the country a non-BJP coalition government which may have Congress as a supporter or a partner. They wish to see a non-BJP and non-Sonia Gandhi-led government in Delhi.